{"id":18926,"date":"2020-09-28T18:03:14","date_gmt":"2020-09-28T18:03:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nimd.org\/imagined-continuities-political-scenarios-after-covid-19\/"},"modified":"2025-06-23T07:14:18","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T07:14:18","slug":"imagined-continuities-political-scenarios-after-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nimd.org\/nl\/imagined-continuities-political-scenarios-after-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"Ingebeelde continu\u00efteiten: Politieke scenario's na COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hoewel het nog te vroeg is om de volledige impact van de COVID-19 pandemie te kennen, is het duidelijk dat het al onze levens de komende jaren zal be\u00efnvloeden... van onze gezondheid tot ons milieu tot onze democratie\u00ebn.<\/p>\n<p>Maar hoe weten we hoe een post-COVID wereld eruit zal zien?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-11206 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/nimd.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/49799496566_4c441d662c_o-scaled-e1601316475872.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"580\" height=\"387\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Als onderdeel van het Europees Partnerschap voor Democratie hebben NIMD en andere organisaties ter ondersteuning van de democratie uit de hele wereld een document geschreven waarin vier verschillende mogelijke politieke scenario's worden uiteengezet.<\/p>\n<p>Deze scenario's zijn gebaseerd op huidige waarnemingen en trends. We zullen ze de komende maanden gebruiken in onze gesprekken met groepen uit het maatschappelijk middenveld, overheden, burgers, academici en journalisten om aanbevelingen voor de lange termijn op te stellen voor democratieondersteuning in de toekomst.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.yumpu.com\/en\/embed\/view\/ki0aLFbcRjoWv7Dd\" width=\"620px\" height=\"600px\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><strong>DE SCENARIOS<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3><strong>Scenario 1: Een verschuiving naar hybride bestuursvormen<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>In dit scenario zal de democratie gestaag afbrokkelen in landen waar ze ooit vanzelfsprekend was. Democratie\u00ebn over de hele wereld zullen geleidelijk verder afglijden naar autocratische regimes.<\/p>\n<p>Uiteindelijk zal democratie alleen nog in naam bestaan. De formele structuren van de democratie (verkiezingen, vrijheid van meningsuiting en instellingen) zullen blijven bestaan, maar deze zullen worden ondermijnd door een concentratie van media in handen van de overheid, een rechterlijke macht die steeds minder onafhankelijk wordt en heimelijk toezicht op burgers.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Scenario 2: Een terugkeer naar een groter onderscheid tussen soorten regimes<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Politieke regimes zullen zich geleidelijk in twee zeer verschillende blokken vormen. De autoritaire groep zal democratische praktijken onderdrukken. De andere groep zal deze principes respecteren.<\/p>\n<p>De internationale samenwerking zal uiterst beperkt zijn en de mondiale context zal de samenwerking op belangrijke gebieden van mondiaal belang, zoals klimaatverandering en nucleaire proliferatie, ernstig ondermijnen.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-3372 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/nimd.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/IMG_8409-Marchaporlavida-Bogota20202843029-e1581337908847.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"580\" height=\"387\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Scenario 3: Democratische doorbraken in belangrijke staten<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>In dit scenario zal de door de crisis veroorzaakte druk ertoe leiden dat burgers verandering eisen in alle soorten regimes. Omdat democratie wereldwijd aantrekkelijk blijft, zullen burgers meer zeggenschap eisen in politieke aangelegenheden en de kernkwetsbaarheid van autoritaire staten blootleggen.<\/p>\n<p>Na verloop van tijd zal deze verandering in paradigma leiden tot democratisering in veel landen over de hele wereld.  Naarmate autoritaire machtssystemen in diskrediet raken, zal de aandacht verschuiven naar verschillende soorten democratie\u00ebn en hoe deze geschikt zijn voor verschillende economische of maatschappelijke doelen.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Scenario 4: Ineenstorting van de staat en vernieuwing van de staat<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>De gevolgen van COVID-19 voor de volksgezondheid en de sociaaleconomische situatie zullen, in combinatie met de klimaatverandering, leiden tot een toename van conflicten over de hele wereld. De economie\u00ebn en politieke structuren van landen zullen bezwijken onder de druk.<\/p>\n<p>Dit zal het meest acuut zijn in armere samenlevingen die minder goed in staat zijn om maatregelen te nemen om het virus aan te pakken of om te gaan met de economische gevolgen.<\/p>\n<p>Het internationale systeem zal niet in staat zijn om te gaan met veranderingen op zo'n grote schaal, wat leidt tot een verloren decennium van ontwikkeling, een focus op veiligheid en staatscapaciteit ten koste van democratie, en het begin van een nieuw politiek tijdperk.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Actie ondernemen om de mogelijke uitkomsten te be\u00efnvloeden<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Natuurlijk hebben deze verschillende scenario's totaal verschillende gevolgen voor democratisch bestuur. Terwijl scenario 3 het meest ideaal is voor voorstanders van democratie, zijn scenario's 1 en 4 rampzalig voor de democratie over de hele wereld.<\/p>\n<p>Voor het EPD zijn de volgende stappen het identificeren van de sleutelfactoren waaraan de gemeenschap die democratie ondersteunt prioriteit moet geven en wat dat zou betekenen voor donoren, mensen uit de praktijk, maatschappelijke organisaties, multilaterale instellingen en beleidsmakers.<\/p>\n<p>Het is belangrijk om dit debat ook in Nederland te voeren en NIMD zal het gesprek aangaan met Nederlandse beleidsmakers. Samen kunnen we begrijpen wat de implicaties zijn van de verschillende scenario's en hoe de democratie ondersteunende gemeenschap kan werken aan de beste uitkomst.<\/p>\n<p>Lees het volledige rapport <a href=\"http:\/\/nimd.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/EPD-Imagined-continuities-political-scenarios-after-the-COVID-19-pandemic-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hier<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hoewel het nog te vroeg is om de volledige impact van de COVID-19 pandemie te kennen, is het duidelijk dat het al onze levens de komende jaren zal be\u00efnvloeden... van onze gezondheid tot ons milieu tot onze democratie\u00ebn. Maar hoe weten we hoe een wereld na COVID eruit zal zien? Als onderdeel van het Europees Partnerschap ... <a href=\"https:\/\/nimd.org\/nl\/imagined-continuities-political-scenarios-after-covid-19\/\"><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24888,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[99],"tags":[],"countries":[],"theme":[],"class_list":["post-18926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Imagined continuities: Political scenarios after COVID-19 - NIMD<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nimd.org\/nl\/imagined-continuities-political-scenarios-after-covid-19\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"nl_NL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Imagined continuities: Political scenarios after COVID-19\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"While it\u2019s still too early to know the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is clear that it will impact all our lives for years to come\u2026 from our health, to our environment, to our democracies. 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