{"id":19060,"date":"2024-06-06T06:53:44","date_gmt":"2024-06-06T06:53:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nimd.org\/africas-2024-elections-landscape-a-mid-year-stocktake\/"},"modified":"2025-12-17T11:31:06","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T11:31:06","slug":"africas-2024-elections-landscape-a-mid-year-stocktake","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nimd.org\/es\/africas-2024-elections-landscape-a-mid-year-stocktake\/","title":{"rendered":"El panorama electoral de \u00c1frica en 2024: Balance de mitad de a\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"

Por Tayuh Ngenge, del NIMD Reforzar la infraestructura democr\u00e1tica<\/a> tema principal<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Anunciado como a\u00f1o de superelecciones (<\/span>UIP<\/span><\/a>), 2024 es un a\u00f1o de grandes acontecimientos electorales, incluso en al menos 17 pa\u00edses de \u00c1frica. A mitad de a\u00f1o se han celebrado elecciones presidenciales en las Comoras (enero), Senegal (marzo), Chad y Sud\u00e1frica (mayo). Se espera que al menos otros 13 pa\u00edses organicen elecciones presidenciales entre junio y diciembre, en las que los titulares mantendr\u00e1n el poder o lo ceder\u00e1n a los reci\u00e9n llegados. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

El presidente de Comoras, Azali Assoumani, y el de Chad, Mahamat Deby, ambos personajes con pedigr\u00ed militar, fueron reelegidos en medio de impugnaciones generalizadas y a veces violentas de los resultados. Senegal eligi\u00f3 a Bassirou Diomaye Faye (44 a\u00f1os) como el presidente m\u00e1s joven de su historia, un resultado sorprendente y de lo m\u00e1s imprevisible, ya que s\u00f3lo 10 d\u00edas antes era un preso pol\u00edtico y la democracia senegalesa estaba al borde del colapso. Tras las p\u00e9rdidas electorales sin precedentes sufridas la semana pasada, el partido del presidente sudafricano Ramaphosa, el Congreso Nacional Africano (CNA), en el poder, debe ahora compartir el poder en el primer gobierno de coalici\u00f3n de su historia: una nueva prueba para el sistema pol\u00edtico y la democracia de Sud\u00e1frica. Qu\u00e9 nos dicen los comicios nacionales celebrados hasta ahora sobre el estado de las elecciones y la democracia en el continente?<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Las elecciones en \u00c1frica siguen siendo complejas y confusas\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

En la medida en que los partidos gobernantes con una fuerte ventaja en el cargo sufrieron importantes p\u00e9rdidas, las elecciones de Senegal y Sud\u00e1frica siguen ilustrando una victoria de la democracia.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sin embargo, la votaci\u00f3n de Senegal -dada la crisis y las tensiones que la rodean- pone de manifiesto la fragilidad de la democracia en contextos en los que a menudo se ha dado por sentada su consolidaci\u00f3n. Las maniobras pol\u00edticas del Presidente saliente Macky Sall, presumiblemente para prolongar indebidamente su mandato o al menos influir en las urnas en beneficio del abanderado de su coalici\u00f3n gobernante, casi arruinaron el historial democr\u00e1tico de Senegal. Al igual que Mal\u00ed, Ben\u00edn o N\u00edger, Senegal muestra los l\u00edmites de la democracia. <\/span>Samuel Huntington<\/span><\/a>para evaluar la calidad de la democracia de un pa\u00eds. Sobre todo, nos dice que la autocomplacencia democr\u00e1tica -si se puede decir as\u00ed- es un lujo que no podemos permitirnos.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

La democracia -consolidada o no- es algo m\u00e1s que un premio que capturar y sentarse a esperar. Por el contrario, debemos entenderla como un proceso permanente que hay que alimentar y cuidar constantemente, incluso cuando, en apariencia, pueda no haber ning\u00fan imperativo para ello. La situaci\u00f3n electoral nos recuerda dolorosamente que, m\u00e1s de 30 a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s de la tercera ola de democratizaci\u00f3n, el proyecto democr\u00e1tico de \u00c1frica sigue siendo un mosaico de avances y retrocesos. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Para ser justos, en los \u00faltimos tiempos han sido m\u00e1s los titulares que han cedido el poder tras una derrota electoral en toda \u00c1frica. Otros han cedido a las presiones de los l\u00edmites constitucionales de los mandatos. Sin embargo, pocas elecciones africanas est\u00e1n libres de crisis o cumplen las normas internacionales sobre elecciones democr\u00e1ticas. Formas m\u00e1s sofisticadas de fraude han sustituido a las de anta\u00f1o.<\/span>s<\/span> pr\u00e1cticas rudimentarias de relleno de urnas. Las impugnaciones de los resultados -aunque cada vez m\u00e1s a trav\u00e9s de los tribunales que de la calle- siguen siendo habituales y, en algunos casos, violentas. Las elecciones presidenciales, en las que el ganador se lo lleva todo, son las m\u00e1s problem\u00e1ticas, y a\u00fan m\u00e1s en los casos de los llamados comicios de titulares, en los que los presidentes en ejercicio son tambi\u00e9n candidatos.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A medida que nos acercamos a la segunda mitad de 2024, con otras 13 elecciones presidenciales en perspectiva, esta desafortunada realidad debe hacernos reflexionar, y por buenas razones. M\u00e1s de la mitad de estas elecciones se desarrollar\u00e1n en contextos de extrema fragilidad democr\u00e1tica o en los que ser\u00e1n candidatos titulares con tendencias autoritarias. Se trata de Ruanda, T\u00fanez, Guinea Bissau, Somalilandia, Sud\u00e1n del Sur, Guinea y Argelia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

El retorno del golpe<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00c1frica tambi\u00e9n asiste al resurgimiento y la normalizaci\u00f3n de los golpes militares con golpistas que no parecen tener prisa por volver a los cuarteles. Los l\u00edderes militares de Mal\u00ed y Burkina Faso han congelado indefinidamente los comicios previstos para febrero y julio de este a\u00f1o, prometiendo una fecha posterior, pero no han dejado ninguna duda sobre su intenci\u00f3n de ser candidatos cuando eso ocurra. Sigue sin estar claro, pero es muy probable, que el Coronel Doumbaya de Guinea, que recientemente se ha autoproclamado General, sea candidato en las elecciones de diciembre. En N\u00edger y Gab\u00f3n tambi\u00e9n hay golpistas, mientras que la RDC ha evitado recientemente un intento de golpe de Estado.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Qu\u00e9 hacer\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Estas sombr\u00edas perspectivas, no s\u00f3lo en las elecciones restantes sino en general, subrayan por qu\u00e9, como dem\u00f3cratas, debemos redoblar los esfuerzos para promover y proteger la democracia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Afortunadamente, tanto las recientes elecciones sudafricanas como las senegalesas siguen proporcionando algunas lecciones valiosas que llevarse a casa en este sentido. Entre ellas, el poder de una sociedad civil vigilante, informada y activista, de instituciones fuertes (como los tribunales) y de los partidos pol\u00edticos. En ambos pa\u00edses, uno o m\u00e1s de estos elementos supusieron fuertes contrapesos a los ataques contra la propia democracia o los valores que la sustentan, lo que se tradujo en p\u00e9rdidas electorales para los partidos gobernantes responsables.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Senegal, por ejemplo, ilustra c\u00f3mo la intr\u00e9pida reacci\u00f3n de una sociedad civil fuerte, una oposici\u00f3n pol\u00edtica resistente y un tribunal constitucional valiente fueron decisivos para desencadenar resultados espectaculares en un contexto pol\u00edtico y electoral complejo. Por su parte, Sud\u00e1frica demuestra c\u00f3mo una ciudadan\u00eda informada y una oposici\u00f3n pol\u00edtica fuerte y resistente han ido eliminando gradualmente el dominio de un ANC anta\u00f1o popular, ahora asociado sobre todo a la corrupci\u00f3n y la ineficacia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Por lo tanto, es crucial ampliar y reforzar el apoyo a estos actores e instituciones como agentes vitales del cambio. Esto es precisamente lo que est\u00e1 haciendo el NIMD a trav\u00e9s de su apoyo inclusivo a los partidos pol\u00edticos en algunos de estos contextos, por ejemplo Burkina Faso, Mal\u00ed y Somalilandia, cuyas elecciones presidenciales est\u00e1n previstas para noviembre. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Del mismo modo, en Burundi, que celebra elecciones parlamentarias el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o y presidenciales en 2027, el NIMD ya est\u00e1 abordando estos retos. Por ejemplo, est\u00e1 desarrollando la capacidad de los partidos pol\u00edticos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil para garantizar que puedan abordar los retos cr\u00edticos y desempe\u00f1ar un papel significativo y constructivo en las elecciones anticipadas.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Para m\u00e1s informaci\u00f3n sobre la labor del NIMD en el fomento de democracias s\u00f3lidas en Burundi, Somalilandia, Burkina Faso, Mal\u00ed y otros contextos de todo el mundo, pulse <\/span>aqu\u00ed<\/span><\/a>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Por Tayuh Ngenge, l\u00edder del tema Fortalecimiento de la infraestructura democr\u00e1tica del NIMD Anunciado como a\u00f1o de superelecciones (UIP), 2024 es un a\u00f1o de grandes acontecimientos electorales, entre ellos en al menos 17 pa\u00edses de \u00c1frica. A mitad de a\u00f1o se han celebrado elecciones presidenciales en las Comoras (enero), Senegal (marzo), Chad y Sud\u00e1frica (mayo). Al menos 13 ... <\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[149],"tags":[],"countries":[79,89,169,142],"theme":[73],"class_list":["post-19060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion-analysis","countries-burkina-faso","countries-mali","countries-somalia","countries-somaliland","theme-responsive-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAfrica\u2019s 2024 elections landscape: A mid-year stocktake - NIMD<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nimd.org\/es\/africas-2024-elections-landscape-a-mid-year-stocktake\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Africa\u2019s 2024 elections landscape: A mid-year stocktake\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Tayuh Ngenge, NIMD’s Strengthening Democratic Infrastructure theme lead Announced as a super elections year (IPU), 2024 is a year of major electoral events, including in at least 17 countries in Africa. 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